NASCAR Betting Picks: 3 Props for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
NASCAR heads to the third 1.5-mile oval track this season, and the very first time all year we’ll see a repeat in the principles package and tire wear combination. Texas is a minimal tire wear oblong, similar to Las Vegas, prior to the 2017 season as a result of reconfiguration and its repave.
Because of this, this race in Texas should most closely resemble the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway — yet another 1.5-mile low tire wear oval that used the aero duct package.
NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Read now Not only will I be leaning heavily on vegas, but we should also think of the races at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Auto Club Speedway, which were run under comparable, but not totally comparable circumstances. I use Texas data since the 2017 repave to judge history.
There are three matchups that offer great value.
Kevin Harvick (+130) over Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is the defending race winner in Texas and also the most popular driver on the circuit, which will be driving Busch’s cost on this one. But give me Harvick at Texas. Westgate has this at +130, if you are in Las Vegas for the NCAA Tournament. In reality, I’d still take Harvick down to +120. Looking at average flag speed in the 3 big ovals of Atlanta, Las Vegas and Auto Club, Harvick has the second-best speed, edging out Busch that comes in third. However, looking at Las Vegas Harvick had the green flag typical rate while Busch came in third.
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